There's not much in the way of prep races for the Derby this weekend. The only one of any note is the Turf Paradise Derby, a race for three year olds at a mile and a sixteenth for $100,000.
The favorite is Mayor Marv, trained by Bob Baffert for the Mike Pegram stable, a team that's worked together on top-caliber horses Real Quiet, winner of the 1998 Kentucky Derby, and Midnight Lute, winner of the 2007 Breeder's Cup Sprint, among others. Although it took him six starts to break his maiden, keep in mind that two of those starts he lost to legitimate Kentucky Derby hopefuls Papa Clem (by 1/2 length in a one mile race at Santa Anita on 12/29) and The Pamplemousse (by 2 3/4 at a 1 1/16 at Hollywood Park on 12/14). And, the start before that, he was beaten by only a head in a sprint at Aqueduct after going five wide. He should be the favorite here. David Flores is scheduled to ride.
Mayor Marv's toughest competition here looks to be Hidden Bounty (morning line 3-1), a Turfway Park favorite who stretched to a mile his last time out and won by 6 3/4, pulling away. He has beaten others in this one, including Albacore Bob (morning line 6-1) and Just Jebicah (morning line 10-1).
I'll take Hidden Bounty to win, Mayor Marv to place, and at 8-1 morning line, I'll look to get a price on Lesson in Deceit, who comes off a mile race on turf where he won by four lengths.
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