In the constant shuffle of the Kentucky Derby starting field, we've got a new twist. Win Willy will not run on Saturday due to a leg injury. Nick Zito has entered Nowhere to Hide in his place.
The Derby field draw is today at noon, and I'll have a full update later this afternoon.
Friday, April 24, 2009
These Four Round Out the Field.....
On Friday, I posted eighteen likely starters, along with their qualifications for getting in. You can still see that list below. However, there have been a few changes to that list, including the scratches of Quality Road (quarter crack) and Square Eddie (shin). So, drop those two from the list and add these four:
Atomic Rain: 4th in the Wood Memorial
Advice: Winner of the Lexington, 5th at the Sunland Derby
Join In the Dance: 2nd in the Tampa Bay Derby, 5th in the Blue Grass
Summer Bird: 3rd in the Arkansas Derby
Atomic Rain: 4th in the Wood Memorial
Advice: Winner of the Lexington, 5th at the Sunland Derby
Join In the Dance: 2nd in the Tampa Bay Derby, 5th in the Blue Grass
Summer Bird: 3rd in the Arkansas Derby
Quality Road and Square Eddie Out
We've had two Derby contenders drop out in as many days.
Quality Road trainer Jimmy Jerkins said yesterday that his colt will not run in the Derby on Saturday due to complications with the quarter crack he sustained late last week. He does, however, expect Quality Road to return, and is likely aiming at either the Preakness or the Belmont. Either way, a horse of that caliber, with several weeks off, might be bad news for anyone looking to find his way on the Triple Crown trail.
Also, I saw on ESPN News this morning that Square Eddie will not run on Saturday due to a "recurring shin injury." Certainly a tough break for him.
Quality Road trainer Jimmy Jerkins said yesterday that his colt will not run in the Derby on Saturday due to complications with the quarter crack he sustained late last week. He does, however, expect Quality Road to return, and is likely aiming at either the Preakness or the Belmont. Either way, a horse of that caliber, with several weeks off, might be bad news for anyone looking to find his way on the Triple Crown trail.
Also, I saw on ESPN News this morning that Square Eddie will not run on Saturday due to a "recurring shin injury." Certainly a tough break for him.
Joe Talamo, Philanthropist?
Joe Talamo said this week that if I Want Revenge, his mount in the Kentucky Derby, should get the victory in the big race, he will donate 25% of his earnings to the Children's Hospital in New Orleans.
Talamo, himself a native of the Crescent City, said "since Hurricane Katrina, the health care system in New Orleans has struggled to rebound, and I wanted to do something to help my hometown get back on its feet. Children’s Hospital is a wonderful institution that we can all be proud of. Several of my friends have been treated there, and I’m thankful they’re here, caring for all the children of New Orleans and the Gulf Coast.”
Talamo, himself a native of the Crescent City, said "since Hurricane Katrina, the health care system in New Orleans has struggled to rebound, and I wanted to do something to help my hometown get back on its feet. Children’s Hospital is a wonderful institution that we can all be proud of. Several of my friends have been treated there, and I’m thankful they’re here, caring for all the children of New Orleans and the Gulf Coast.”
Off the Derby Trail
As the Derby preps have progressed, we've seen a lot of horses flash potential, and most have fallen by the wayside as we move closer and closer to the big day. I thought now would be a good time to recap some of the horses who showed their brilliance early, but for various reasons, are no longer contenders. They are:
Stardom Bound: Despite early rumors of a run against the boys in the Derby, it now appears that her third place finish in the Ashland has scared her IEAH owners enough that they will run her in the Kentucky Oaks instead. Don't think for a second, though, that we have seen the end of this breathtaking champion filly. She's the real deal, and will likely prove it on the first Friday in May.
Midshipman: the 2008 Eclipse award winning juvenile suffered a soft-tissue injury to his left front leg while training in Dubai in March. He will not compete in any of the triple crown races.
The Pamplemousse: Has been off the trail since scratching the morning of the Santa Anita Derby due to tendon issues, which co-owner Alex Solis II described as "a small lesion." Expect to see him back later this summer.
Mafaaz (GB): This colt was the first winner of the "win and you're in" format for the Derby, qualifying via his victory in the Kentucky Derby Challenge Stakes at Kempton Park in Great Britain. However, after shipping to the U.S. and running a disappointing eight (to likely Kentucky Derby starter General Quarters) in the Toyota Blue Grass at Keeneland, his owners decided to change trainers, handing him over to the always capable Kiaran McLaughlin, who immediately ruled him out of the Kentucky Derby.
Old Fashioned: This early Derby favorite was retired after finding a slab fracture in his right knee following his 2nd place finish in the Grade II Arkansas Derby. He will now stand at stud, although to my knowledge, where he will stand is still being determined.
Vineyard Haven: After a disappointing fourth in the U.A.E. Two Thousand Guineas, Godolphin decided to pull this colt from Derby consideration. Don't feel too bad for them though, as they still own likely starters Desert Party and Regal Ransom.
Beethoven: This colt missed his start in the Florida Derby after trainer John Ward found heat in a tendon on his left front leg several days prior. At that point, Ward said he doubted the colt would be back in time to make a Derby start, and it still appears that way.
Stardom Bound: Despite early rumors of a run against the boys in the Derby, it now appears that her third place finish in the Ashland has scared her IEAH owners enough that they will run her in the Kentucky Oaks instead. Don't think for a second, though, that we have seen the end of this breathtaking champion filly. She's the real deal, and will likely prove it on the first Friday in May.
Midshipman: the 2008 Eclipse award winning juvenile suffered a soft-tissue injury to his left front leg while training in Dubai in March. He will not compete in any of the triple crown races.
The Pamplemousse: Has been off the trail since scratching the morning of the Santa Anita Derby due to tendon issues, which co-owner Alex Solis II described as "a small lesion." Expect to see him back later this summer.
Mafaaz (GB): This colt was the first winner of the "win and you're in" format for the Derby, qualifying via his victory in the Kentucky Derby Challenge Stakes at Kempton Park in Great Britain. However, after shipping to the U.S. and running a disappointing eight (to likely Kentucky Derby starter General Quarters) in the Toyota Blue Grass at Keeneland, his owners decided to change trainers, handing him over to the always capable Kiaran McLaughlin, who immediately ruled him out of the Kentucky Derby.
Old Fashioned: This early Derby favorite was retired after finding a slab fracture in his right knee following his 2nd place finish in the Grade II Arkansas Derby. He will now stand at stud, although to my knowledge, where he will stand is still being determined.
Vineyard Haven: After a disappointing fourth in the U.A.E. Two Thousand Guineas, Godolphin decided to pull this colt from Derby consideration. Don't feel too bad for them though, as they still own likely starters Desert Party and Regal Ransom.
Beethoven: This colt missed his start in the Florida Derby after trainer John Ward found heat in a tendon on his left front leg several days prior. At that point, Ward said he doubted the colt would be back in time to make a Derby start, and it still appears that way.
Field Almost Set
With only eight days until the Kentucky Derby, it appears there are only two starting spots remaining. So far, the eighteen who appear to be in are (in no particular order):
Dunkirk - Florida Derby runner up
Musket Man - Winner of the Illinois and Tampa Derbies
West Side Bernie - Wood Memorial runner up
Chocolate Candy - Winner of California and El Camino Derbies, runner up in Santa Anita Derby
General Quarters - Winner of the Blue Grass Stakes
Square Eddie - 3rd in the Lexington at Keeneland
Papa Clem - Arkansas Derby winner, second in the Louisiana Derby
Pioneerof the Nile - Santa Anita Derby winner
Mine That Bird - Second in the Borderland Derby
Friesan Fire - Winner of the Lecomte, Risen Star, and Louisiana Derby
Flying Private - Second in the Lane's End, fifth in the Arkansas Derby
Desert Party - Winner of the UAE Two Thousand Guineas, second in the UAE Derby
Mr. Hot Stuff - 3rd in the Santa Anita Derby
Quality Road - Winner of the Fountain of Youth and Florida Derby
I Want Revenge - Winner of the Gotham and Wood Memorial
Win Willy - Rebel Winner, fourth in the Arkansas Derby
Regal Ransom - UAE Derby winner, second in UAE Two Thousand Guineas
Hold Me Back - Lane's End winner, second in the Blue Grass
For the record, I still like I Want Revenge to win it, with Quality Road and Pioneerof the Nile rounding out the top three. For a long shot, I'll take Dunkirk (I've got ticket for him at 9-1 from future wager pool two).
Dunkirk - Florida Derby runner up
Musket Man - Winner of the Illinois and Tampa Derbies
West Side Bernie - Wood Memorial runner up
Chocolate Candy - Winner of California and El Camino Derbies, runner up in Santa Anita Derby
General Quarters - Winner of the Blue Grass Stakes
Square Eddie - 3rd in the Lexington at Keeneland
Papa Clem - Arkansas Derby winner, second in the Louisiana Derby
Pioneerof the Nile - Santa Anita Derby winner
Mine That Bird - Second in the Borderland Derby
Friesan Fire - Winner of the Lecomte, Risen Star, and Louisiana Derby
Flying Private - Second in the Lane's End, fifth in the Arkansas Derby
Desert Party - Winner of the UAE Two Thousand Guineas, second in the UAE Derby
Mr. Hot Stuff - 3rd in the Santa Anita Derby
Quality Road - Winner of the Fountain of Youth and Florida Derby
I Want Revenge - Winner of the Gotham and Wood Memorial
Win Willy - Rebel Winner, fourth in the Arkansas Derby
Regal Ransom - UAE Derby winner, second in UAE Two Thousand Guineas
Hold Me Back - Lane's End winner, second in the Blue Grass
For the record, I still like I Want Revenge to win it, with Quality Road and Pioneerof the Nile rounding out the top three. For a long shot, I'll take Dunkirk (I've got ticket for him at 9-1 from future wager pool two).
Quality Road's Got a Hoof Crack
In what can only be considered as more bad luck from the racing Gods, Quality Road has developed a crack in his right hind hoof. By all accounts, it appears that the crack was caught before any infection set in, and a patch should have him up and breezing again within days.
Unfortunately, this is the second crack the Florida Derby winning colt has developed this year. Trainer Jimmy Jerkins has said that the colt does not appear to show any soreness from the injury, but nonetheless, it leaves little time for recovery.
Let's hope that this potential superstar will still be healthy and able to make the start at the Kentucky Derby. He has certainly earned his position, and the race would be worse off without him in the field.
Unfortunately, this is the second crack the Florida Derby winning colt has developed this year. Trainer Jimmy Jerkins has said that the colt does not appear to show any soreness from the injury, but nonetheless, it leaves little time for recovery.
Let's hope that this potential superstar will still be healthy and able to make the start at the Kentucky Derby. He has certainly earned his position, and the race would be worse off without him in the field.
Tuesday, April 14, 2009
Old Fashioned to Retire
In some sad news, ESPN is reporting that Old Fashioned, runner up in the Arkansas Derby, will have to be retired after X-rays show that he has a knee fracture on his right front leg.
This is a tough turn for trainer Larry Jones, who dealt with the difficulties of filly Eight Belles death last year. However, Jones still has likely Derby starter Friesan Fire.
This is a tough turn for trainer Larry Jones, who dealt with the difficulties of filly Eight Belles death last year. However, Jones still has likely Derby starter Friesan Fire.
Monday, April 13, 2009
East v. West
Don't you love rivalries? Ali vs. Frazier, Magic vs. Bird, Michigan vs. Ohio State, Affirmed vs. Alydar. We have another potential classic brewing for the Kentucky Derby.
Representing the West: Pioneerof The Nile
His argument:
After winning the Santa Anita Derby, and boasting a perfect three-for-three record this year, Pioneerof The Nile is clearly the class of the west coast racing circuit. His wins have come against substantial competition, and all three were significant races; the Santa Anita Derby (G1), Robert B. Lewis Stakes (G2), San Felipe Stakes (G3). Couple that with his CashCall Futurity (G1) win and third place run in the Lane's End Breeder's Futurity (G1) from five starts as a two year old, and it's easy to see that the horse has talent. As of April 13th, he is second in graded stakes earnings, with $1,193, 250.
Potential pitfall:
As a west coast horse, Pioneerof The Nile has been racing on synthetics. In his only trip east, as a two year old, he ran on Keeneland's synthetic track, where he finished third. Unfortunately for him, the Derby is still run on dirt, and that's a big step. Trainer Bob Baffert has famously said "if he likes the dirt, he'll like the dirt. I can't force him to like the dirt." While that's true, it also leaves a big question mark. Can he make the jump?
Representing the East: I Want Revenge
His argument:
Originally a west coast horse, he made the jump east to try dirt, and has been devouring opponents ever since. He romped in the Grade III Gotham, beating a tough field filled with Derby hopefuls, then followed it up with a grinding performance in the Grade I Wood Memorial, where he found himself well behind after breaking horribly from the gate, then got bumped and jostled throughout. Somehow, he managed to split horses in the stretch, making his own racing room and drawing off to win. It is exactly that kind of courage, and the ability to take contact and difficult situations and still not lose heart, that prevails in the slugfest that is so often the Kentucky Derby. Plus, he has the added advantage of knowing he likes the dirt.
One other thing, and don't count this out. I Want Revenge has Joe Talamo on board. Love him or hate him, with the traffic on Derby day, the winner quite often has to take chances, exploit holes that disappear in a heartbeat, and make his own racing luck. Joe Talamo does all of those things on a daily basis. Does it always work? Not even close, but it might on Derby Day.
I Want Revenge is currently ranked 4th in graded stakes earnings, with $774,000.
Potential pitfall:
In three starts this year, I Want Revenge has won two. His only loss was on synthetic, where he ran third, losing to.... wait for it.... Pioneerof The Nile. And guess what? As a two year old, he ran second in the Grade I CashCall Stakes to, you guessed it, Pioneerof The Nile. In the head to head battle, Pioneerof The Nile has the edge, but both were on synthetics, a surface that Pioneer likes and I Want Revenge does not. I Want Revenge's name seems more apt now, doesn't it?
The plot thickens.
Representing the West: Pioneerof The Nile
His argument:
After winning the Santa Anita Derby, and boasting a perfect three-for-three record this year, Pioneerof The Nile is clearly the class of the west coast racing circuit. His wins have come against substantial competition, and all three were significant races; the Santa Anita Derby (G1), Robert B. Lewis Stakes (G2), San Felipe Stakes (G3). Couple that with his CashCall Futurity (G1) win and third place run in the Lane's End Breeder's Futurity (G1) from five starts as a two year old, and it's easy to see that the horse has talent. As of April 13th, he is second in graded stakes earnings, with $1,193, 250.
Potential pitfall:
As a west coast horse, Pioneerof The Nile has been racing on synthetics. In his only trip east, as a two year old, he ran on Keeneland's synthetic track, where he finished third. Unfortunately for him, the Derby is still run on dirt, and that's a big step. Trainer Bob Baffert has famously said "if he likes the dirt, he'll like the dirt. I can't force him to like the dirt." While that's true, it also leaves a big question mark. Can he make the jump?
Representing the East: I Want Revenge
His argument:
Originally a west coast horse, he made the jump east to try dirt, and has been devouring opponents ever since. He romped in the Grade III Gotham, beating a tough field filled with Derby hopefuls, then followed it up with a grinding performance in the Grade I Wood Memorial, where he found himself well behind after breaking horribly from the gate, then got bumped and jostled throughout. Somehow, he managed to split horses in the stretch, making his own racing room and drawing off to win. It is exactly that kind of courage, and the ability to take contact and difficult situations and still not lose heart, that prevails in the slugfest that is so often the Kentucky Derby. Plus, he has the added advantage of knowing he likes the dirt.
One other thing, and don't count this out. I Want Revenge has Joe Talamo on board. Love him or hate him, with the traffic on Derby day, the winner quite often has to take chances, exploit holes that disappear in a heartbeat, and make his own racing luck. Joe Talamo does all of those things on a daily basis. Does it always work? Not even close, but it might on Derby Day.
I Want Revenge is currently ranked 4th in graded stakes earnings, with $774,000.
Potential pitfall:
In three starts this year, I Want Revenge has won two. His only loss was on synthetic, where he ran third, losing to.... wait for it.... Pioneerof The Nile. And guess what? As a two year old, he ran second in the Grade I CashCall Stakes to, you guessed it, Pioneerof The Nile. In the head to head battle, Pioneerof The Nile has the edge, but both were on synthetics, a surface that Pioneer likes and I Want Revenge does not. I Want Revenge's name seems more apt now, doesn't it?
The plot thickens.
Wood Memorial, Illinois Derby, Santa Anita Derby
Wood Memorial
What can I say about I Want Revenge? This horse is the real deal. He was impressive in the Gotham back at the beginning of March. Now he strikes again with a late flourish, running between horses, making his own luck, and drawing away to win this one. If you watch this one closely, he gets a terrible trip, and that makes this effort even more impressive. Not only that, but he beat some very talented horses to do it. In my book, he's the one to beat right now.
West Side Bernie ran well in the Wood as well, finishing second. His performance likely earned him a spot for the Derby, as he is now in 13th place in earnings.
Illinois Derby
Since we know how this one ends, I'll be brief and just say that Musket Man ran well. After winning the Tampa Bay Derby, and following it up with this, he's certainly taking an unconventional route to the big show, but with him sitting solidly in the graded stakes earnings as of April 12th, you have to admire it. Also of note, Giant Oak ran second here, and is now in 18th place in earnings.
Santa Anita Derby
Pioneerof the Nile won a strange race in the Santa Anita Derby, trying to run off with jockey Garrett Gomez down the backstretch before being collected, then having to stretch out again while coming for home to nip Chocolate Candy for the win.
I was not particularly impressed with this race. Pioneer's erratic run may have worked in a relatively small field, but against the log-jam that is the Kentucky Derby, that sort of behavior will have you in deep trouble. Add to that the fact that all three starts this year are on synthetics, and you have a difficult guess as to how he'll perform on Derby day.
In a bit of disappointing news, The Pamplemousse, who looked to be the strongest contender for Pioneer in this race, was scratched because of a soft tissue injury. It has since been determined that the scratch will keep the Sham Stakes winner out of the Kentucky Derby.
Here are replays of all three races, for your viewing pleasure. Make sure to check out the trip I Want Revenge gets in the Wood.
What can I say about I Want Revenge? This horse is the real deal. He was impressive in the Gotham back at the beginning of March. Now he strikes again with a late flourish, running between horses, making his own luck, and drawing away to win this one. If you watch this one closely, he gets a terrible trip, and that makes this effort even more impressive. Not only that, but he beat some very talented horses to do it. In my book, he's the one to beat right now.
West Side Bernie ran well in the Wood as well, finishing second. His performance likely earned him a spot for the Derby, as he is now in 13th place in earnings.
Illinois Derby
Since we know how this one ends, I'll be brief and just say that Musket Man ran well. After winning the Tampa Bay Derby, and following it up with this, he's certainly taking an unconventional route to the big show, but with him sitting solidly in the graded stakes earnings as of April 12th, you have to admire it. Also of note, Giant Oak ran second here, and is now in 18th place in earnings.
Santa Anita Derby
Pioneerof the Nile won a strange race in the Santa Anita Derby, trying to run off with jockey Garrett Gomez down the backstretch before being collected, then having to stretch out again while coming for home to nip Chocolate Candy for the win.
I was not particularly impressed with this race. Pioneer's erratic run may have worked in a relatively small field, but against the log-jam that is the Kentucky Derby, that sort of behavior will have you in deep trouble. Add to that the fact that all three starts this year are on synthetics, and you have a difficult guess as to how he'll perform on Derby day.
In a bit of disappointing news, The Pamplemousse, who looked to be the strongest contender for Pioneer in this race, was scratched because of a soft tissue injury. It has since been determined that the scratch will keep the Sham Stakes winner out of the Kentucky Derby.
Here are replays of all three races, for your viewing pleasure. Make sure to check out the trip I Want Revenge gets in the Wood.
UAE Derby
Godolphin Stables are going to win a Kentucky Derby one year, and this might just be the year, and after their horses ran away with the field in the UAE Derby, held at world famous Nad al Sheba racecourse in Dubai, they may be thinking this is their year. Regal Ransom and Desert Party ran 1-2 respectively, in such a dominating fashion that no other horses were even in the wide shot during the stretch run.
When I see a race like this, it makes me question exactly what's happening. First, it always seems a bit unfair that Godolphin has so much money that they can essentially afford to host their own Derby prep, and then dominate it so distinctly, which is clearly what happened here. That said, it's not as if Godolphin doesn't put up some incentive to attract other top contenders (Regal Ransom made $1.25 million for winning this one), but for whatever reason, the top American contenders, with only a few exceptions, don't show up.
Unfortunately, what the fans are left with, at least from a Triple Crown perspective, is a lot of confusion in deciphering exactly what they're looking at. Was this a good field that took an amazing effort to beat, or was this a mediocre field that the Godolphin horses tromped on, making themselves look good in the process.
My guess is that it's somewhere in between. Regal Ransom and Desert Party both looked very good here relatively speaking, and surprisingly, Regal Ransom was only the bettor's third choice, paying $28.20 to win.
Barring any unfortunate accidents, both horses will be starting in the Derby (Regal Ransom is first on the graded stakes earning lists, Desert Party is sixth). What remains to be seen, however, is whether Godolphin can break the string of disappointing finishes put up by Dubai horses in the Derby. I think either of these has a shot. We'll know soon enough.
When I see a race like this, it makes me question exactly what's happening. First, it always seems a bit unfair that Godolphin has so much money that they can essentially afford to host their own Derby prep, and then dominate it so distinctly, which is clearly what happened here. That said, it's not as if Godolphin doesn't put up some incentive to attract other top contenders (Regal Ransom made $1.25 million for winning this one), but for whatever reason, the top American contenders, with only a few exceptions, don't show up.
Unfortunately, what the fans are left with, at least from a Triple Crown perspective, is a lot of confusion in deciphering exactly what they're looking at. Was this a good field that took an amazing effort to beat, or was this a mediocre field that the Godolphin horses tromped on, making themselves look good in the process.
My guess is that it's somewhere in between. Regal Ransom and Desert Party both looked very good here relatively speaking, and surprisingly, Regal Ransom was only the bettor's third choice, paying $28.20 to win.
Barring any unfortunate accidents, both horses will be starting in the Derby (Regal Ransom is first on the graded stakes earning lists, Desert Party is sixth). What remains to be seen, however, is whether Godolphin can break the string of disappointing finishes put up by Dubai horses in the Derby. I think either of these has a shot. We'll know soon enough.
Swale Stakes
The Swale Stakes, an under card race on Florida Derby day at Gulfstream, saw intense racing as This Ones For Phil and Big Drama went head to head down the stretch, and Big Drama finished just ahead while setting a track record. Unfortunately for Big Drama and jockey Eibar Coa, they set that track record while trying to run over This Ones For Phil, and were subsequently disqualified.
In the long run, it appears that this race will not have much impact on the Triple Crown, as placed winner This Ones For Phil is still in 24th place in graded stakes as of April 12th, meaning there would have to be some movement from someone above him in the list to earn him a starting spot.
Unfortunately for Big Drama, the lost snapped a five race win streak, although this was the first race for him as a three year old, and it was unlikely that he would have qualified for the Derby anyway.
In the long run, it appears that this race will not have much impact on the Triple Crown, as placed winner This Ones For Phil is still in 24th place in graded stakes as of April 12th, meaning there would have to be some movement from someone above him in the list to earn him a starting spot.
Unfortunately for Big Drama, the lost snapped a five race win streak, although this was the first race for him as a three year old, and it was unlikely that he would have qualified for the Derby anyway.
Florida Derby
The Florida Derby was a terrific race, although I must admit, I had runner-up Dunkirk pegged to win it.
On a day in which speed reigned king at Gulfstream, Quality Road ran the race of his life and set a track record at a mile and an eight, finishing in 1:47.72, almost two lengths in front of Dunkirk.
That said, I didn't think Dunkirk ran that terribly. He did spot the field quite a bit down the backstretch, and at one point was called as being seven lengths off the lead. He rounded the final turn with enthusiasm, and did draw off from the rest of a stout field. Unfortunately for him, when he locked eyes with Quality Road, he didn't have the reserve to match him, and Quality Road drew off.
I was a bit surprised by the comments of Todd Pletcher, trainer of Dunkirk, about the track conditions after the race, saying "it's frustrating that the track conditions have been so good, fair, the whole meet, and then they want to change it."
Obviously, part of the frustration comes from the failure of his "win one and qualify" strategy. Since the Kentucky Derby accepts entries based on graded stakes winnings (if the number of horses exceeds the twenty starting positions), a horse has to make sure he has enough to qualify. This being Dunkirk's first start of the year, his only qualifying money comes from his second place in this race, and it is unclear if these earnings will be enough to earn his spot in the Derby (author's note - as of 4/12, Dunkirk is listed as 18th in earnings, and it appears he will start in the Derby).
Quality Road, on the other hand, is now sitting pretty after what can only be called a dominating win. His purse money here, coupled with his stakes earnings from his win at the Fountain of Youth on February 28th, clearly have him locked in. And on the heels of such an outstanding performance, I would have trouble picking against him. He ran a terrific race, stalking the lead the entire stretch before pouring it on when turning for home. Even more impressive to me was his ability to recognize and withstand the challenge from Dunkirk. This horse simply looked him in the eye and said "not today". Awesome.
On a day in which speed reigned king at Gulfstream, Quality Road ran the race of his life and set a track record at a mile and an eight, finishing in 1:47.72, almost two lengths in front of Dunkirk.
That said, I didn't think Dunkirk ran that terribly. He did spot the field quite a bit down the backstretch, and at one point was called as being seven lengths off the lead. He rounded the final turn with enthusiasm, and did draw off from the rest of a stout field. Unfortunately for him, when he locked eyes with Quality Road, he didn't have the reserve to match him, and Quality Road drew off.
I was a bit surprised by the comments of Todd Pletcher, trainer of Dunkirk, about the track conditions after the race, saying "it's frustrating that the track conditions have been so good, fair, the whole meet, and then they want to change it."
Obviously, part of the frustration comes from the failure of his "win one and qualify" strategy. Since the Kentucky Derby accepts entries based on graded stakes winnings (if the number of horses exceeds the twenty starting positions), a horse has to make sure he has enough to qualify. This being Dunkirk's first start of the year, his only qualifying money comes from his second place in this race, and it is unclear if these earnings will be enough to earn his spot in the Derby (author's note - as of 4/12, Dunkirk is listed as 18th in earnings, and it appears he will start in the Derby).
Quality Road, on the other hand, is now sitting pretty after what can only be called a dominating win. His purse money here, coupled with his stakes earnings from his win at the Fountain of Youth on February 28th, clearly have him locked in. And on the heels of such an outstanding performance, I would have trouble picking against him. He ran a terrific race, stalking the lead the entire stretch before pouring it on when turning for home. Even more impressive to me was his ability to recognize and withstand the challenge from Dunkirk. This horse simply looked him in the eye and said "not today". Awesome.
Back Again
After an unintended hiatus, the Paddock Lounge is back and ready for the Triple Crown trail.
Over the last several weeks, I've experienced some difficulties in keeping the site up to date with the latest news from the racing world. Fortunately, we are back on track and ready to go.
Many of the following posts were actually written during this time period, but for a number of reasons (some my fault, some not) they were not actually posted to the site in a timely manner. In an effort to remedy that, I'm posting them now, realizing that they are a bit late, but wanting to share my thoughts on some of the important races that took place during this time period anyway.
We're right down to the final weeks. Stay tuned.
Over the last several weeks, I've experienced some difficulties in keeping the site up to date with the latest news from the racing world. Fortunately, we are back on track and ready to go.
Many of the following posts were actually written during this time period, but for a number of reasons (some my fault, some not) they were not actually posted to the site in a timely manner. In an effort to remedy that, I'm posting them now, realizing that they are a bit late, but wanting to share my thoughts on some of the important races that took place during this time period anyway.
We're right down to the final weeks. Stay tuned.
Monday, March 16, 2009
Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool Two
The second future wager pool for the Kentucky Derby closed on Sunday, and as usual, the mutual field is once again the favorite. I have added the results to the column on the right. For those of you still interested in the first wager pool, you can find those results further down.
For the record, my two dollars went to Dunkirk. Unfortunately, he closed at 7-1, likely due to the fact that he didn't run on Saturday and therefore still maintains his undefeated streak. Yes, I realize that he hasn't faced still competition (he'll likely get his first real test in the Florida Derby), but I thought I could get a decent price on him. Obviously, that didn't work out. At least it was only two dollars.
For the record, my two dollars went to Dunkirk. Unfortunately, he closed at 7-1, likely due to the fact that he didn't run on Saturday and therefore still maintains his undefeated streak. Yes, I realize that he hasn't faced still competition (he'll likely get his first real test in the Florida Derby), but I thought I could get a decent price on him. Obviously, that didn't work out. At least it was only two dollars.
Sunday, March 15, 2009
Kentucky Oaks Day Coverage Cut from ESPN
I know times are difficult, but this one hurts...
ESPN has cut back their coverage of the Kentucky Derby this year from 11 hours to 5 hours. The cut in time includes all coverage for Friday, including the Kentucky Oaks.
You can read the full article here:
http://www.thoroughbredtimes.com/racing-news/2009/March/13/ESPN-cuts-Oaks-from-Derby-week-coverage.aspx
ESPN has cut back their coverage of the Kentucky Derby this year from 11 hours to 5 hours. The cut in time includes all coverage for Friday, including the Kentucky Oaks.
You can read the full article here:
http://www.thoroughbredtimes.com/racing-news/2009/March/13/ESPN-cuts-Oaks-from-Derby-week-coverage.aspx
Wild Weekend
I realize this post is a bit late in coming, but with the start of the high school lacrosse season (I'm a coach), and four different races to break down (as well as some intriguing filly races that took place Saturday), it's taken me most of the weekend to catch my breath.
That said, let's dive in.
San Felipe Stakes
In the San Felipe at Santa Anita, Pioneerof The Nile went off as the 1/5 favorite, and although it was much closer than it should have been, he didn't disappoint. Clearly the class of this field, I think many expected a much more dominant run from him here. One possible excuse was the lack of speed in the front. In both of his previous starts this year, he's run from off the pace to hit the wire in front, and it's possible that the slow early fractions here made him alter his racing style more than he would like. I still would have liked to see more effort, but in the end he got the job done and maintained his undefeated 3 year-old campaign. The big test for him will be in the Santa Anita Derby. After Saturday's performance, I don't expect we'll see as many shy away from him next time out.
Tampa Bay Derby
To be frank, I'm not sure what to say about the Tampa Bay Derby. I've watched this race in replay several times now, and I still can't believe that Musket Man got it done. His victory was impressive for a number of reasons. Despite a nice pocket trip through most of the race, he got shuffled back at the end of the backstretch and had to go four wide to find room to run in the stretch. Also, to my (amateur) eye, he looked as if he was tiring heavily, even after switching leads at the top of the stretch. The most impressive, however, was the run he made on Join in the Dance, who was leading and looking to pull away. When local jockey Danny Centeno was able to focus Musket Man and aim him for Join in the Dance, it was over. The competitive streak that Musket Man showed in this one was impressive.
The question is where this horse goes from here. He is not Triple Crown nominated, although that's not a big deal. In TVG's interview with owner Eric Fein after the race, Fein did say that "Kentucky's always fun," and I would think that for any owner with a Tampa Bay Derby winner in his stable, that has to be a consideration. I'm not completely sold on this horse being of Derby quality, but that said, he ran third to General Quarters and Sumo in his only career loss, and soundly beat both in this one on Saturday.
Rebel Stakes
I think the only realistic thing to say about the Rebel is that sometimes, really good horses just get beat, and we'll never know why. I thought going into it that Old Fashioned was one of the brightest stars on the Derby trail, and quite frankly, I still think that. He ran a good race, and it's hard to say exactly what happened. One could blame it on the quick early fractions, or, more likely, on the fact that he was far enough out front that jockey Ramon Dominguez was letting him shut it down before he saw the challenger coming on the outside. But when an undefeated horse gets beat by a 56-1 longshot like Win Willy, you just chalk it up to bad racing luck and move on. Assuming Old Fashioned looks okay coming out of this one, I doubt very seriously that his loss at the wire will change Larry Jones' future plans for the Derby. He's still a great horse.
Louisiana Derby
Finally, in what was probably the most talented race of the day, we received the most dominating performance. Friesan Fire smoked a field of solid horses to win by seven lengths over a sloppy track in the Louisiana Derby. Clearly, he's on the right track, after sweeping all three of the big races (Lecomte, Risen Star) at the Fair Grounds.
The more important question out of Louisiana might be where some of the others are heading. Papa Clem and Giant Oak ran respectibly, and should still be on track. Third place finisher Terrain looked good for his first start of the year, but to be truthful, the only other time I've seen him run was in the Breeder's Cup Juvenile last year, and I really don't know much about him.
It will be interesting to see how the connections of distant finishers Patena and Free Country take this loss. I would think that Patena will still come back, but that remains to be seen. Also, I will still look for Uno Mas in his next start. He hasn't run that well for several races now, but he's been the victim of some horrible trips, and if his next start finds him against a little less competition, he might be worth a few dollars at the window. He was still running at the wire, and that's always good to see.
Certainly an interesting weekend. We have a light weekend coming up next, with the Lane's End the only serious race, but then we'll be right back into the thick of things in two weeks with the Florida Derby and the emergence of several foreign horses who will look to take big strides forward in the UAE Derby. Stay tuned. Things are getting heated.
That said, let's dive in.
San Felipe Stakes
In the San Felipe at Santa Anita, Pioneerof The Nile went off as the 1/5 favorite, and although it was much closer than it should have been, he didn't disappoint. Clearly the class of this field, I think many expected a much more dominant run from him here. One possible excuse was the lack of speed in the front. In both of his previous starts this year, he's run from off the pace to hit the wire in front, and it's possible that the slow early fractions here made him alter his racing style more than he would like. I still would have liked to see more effort, but in the end he got the job done and maintained his undefeated 3 year-old campaign. The big test for him will be in the Santa Anita Derby. After Saturday's performance, I don't expect we'll see as many shy away from him next time out.
Tampa Bay Derby
To be frank, I'm not sure what to say about the Tampa Bay Derby. I've watched this race in replay several times now, and I still can't believe that Musket Man got it done. His victory was impressive for a number of reasons. Despite a nice pocket trip through most of the race, he got shuffled back at the end of the backstretch and had to go four wide to find room to run in the stretch. Also, to my (amateur) eye, he looked as if he was tiring heavily, even after switching leads at the top of the stretch. The most impressive, however, was the run he made on Join in the Dance, who was leading and looking to pull away. When local jockey Danny Centeno was able to focus Musket Man and aim him for Join in the Dance, it was over. The competitive streak that Musket Man showed in this one was impressive.
The question is where this horse goes from here. He is not Triple Crown nominated, although that's not a big deal. In TVG's interview with owner Eric Fein after the race, Fein did say that "Kentucky's always fun," and I would think that for any owner with a Tampa Bay Derby winner in his stable, that has to be a consideration. I'm not completely sold on this horse being of Derby quality, but that said, he ran third to General Quarters and Sumo in his only career loss, and soundly beat both in this one on Saturday.
Rebel Stakes
I think the only realistic thing to say about the Rebel is that sometimes, really good horses just get beat, and we'll never know why. I thought going into it that Old Fashioned was one of the brightest stars on the Derby trail, and quite frankly, I still think that. He ran a good race, and it's hard to say exactly what happened. One could blame it on the quick early fractions, or, more likely, on the fact that he was far enough out front that jockey Ramon Dominguez was letting him shut it down before he saw the challenger coming on the outside. But when an undefeated horse gets beat by a 56-1 longshot like Win Willy, you just chalk it up to bad racing luck and move on. Assuming Old Fashioned looks okay coming out of this one, I doubt very seriously that his loss at the wire will change Larry Jones' future plans for the Derby. He's still a great horse.
Louisiana Derby
Finally, in what was probably the most talented race of the day, we received the most dominating performance. Friesan Fire smoked a field of solid horses to win by seven lengths over a sloppy track in the Louisiana Derby. Clearly, he's on the right track, after sweeping all three of the big races (Lecomte, Risen Star) at the Fair Grounds.
The more important question out of Louisiana might be where some of the others are heading. Papa Clem and Giant Oak ran respectibly, and should still be on track. Third place finisher Terrain looked good for his first start of the year, but to be truthful, the only other time I've seen him run was in the Breeder's Cup Juvenile last year, and I really don't know much about him.
It will be interesting to see how the connections of distant finishers Patena and Free Country take this loss. I would think that Patena will still come back, but that remains to be seen. Also, I will still look for Uno Mas in his next start. He hasn't run that well for several races now, but he's been the victim of some horrible trips, and if his next start finds him against a little less competition, he might be worth a few dollars at the window. He was still running at the wire, and that's always good to see.
Certainly an interesting weekend. We have a light weekend coming up next, with the Lane's End the only serious race, but then we'll be right back into the thick of things in two weeks with the Florida Derby and the emergence of several foreign horses who will look to take big strides forward in the UAE Derby. Stay tuned. Things are getting heated.
Wednesday, March 11, 2009
Overdue Credit
Joe Hirsch was a legend in horse racing journalism, but unfortunately, he lost his battle with Parkinson's in January. Despite being several months late, I feel it important to recognize him on this blog. His work in the industry speaks for itself.
We'll miss you, Mr. Hirsch.
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/11/sports/othersports/11hirsch.html
We'll miss you, Mr. Hirsch.
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/11/sports/othersports/11hirsch.html
Monday, March 9, 2009
"Jockeys" Getting Second Season
During Saturday's Santa Anita card, Mike Smith, Chantal Sutherland, and the producer's of Animal Planet's "Jockeys" were introduced in the winner's circle, and it was announced that the show had been picked up for a second season, with filming beginning that day.
I haven't seen an official press release yet, but I suppose that answers the question of whether the show would switch to a different track. Also, considering they were following Smith and Sutherland around, it appears a safe assumption that those two will be returning as "characters."
That's cool with me. I'm going to go on record right now as saying that Mike Smith is one of my favorite's of all time. If he's still in it, I'll keep watching (as if I wouldn't keep watching anyway).
I haven't seen an official press release yet, but I suppose that answers the question of whether the show would switch to a different track. Also, considering they were following Smith and Sutherland around, it appears a safe assumption that those two will be returning as "characters."
That's cool with me. I'm going to go on record right now as saying that Mike Smith is one of my favorite's of all time. If he's still in it, I'll keep watching (as if I wouldn't keep watching anyway).
Sunday, March 8, 2009
Stardom Bound Wins a Thriller
Before the weekend, I said that I would save my breath and tell all of you to bet Stardom Bound. Well, that worked, but not as easily as I would have expected. The filly had to circle the field in the stretch and just clipped the wire by a whisker.
Before this race, here connections had been talking about the Kentucky Derby, but I'm guessing now that the Kentucky Oaks is where we'll eventually see her. Also still in the air is whether she will run in the Santa Anita Derby as previously mentioned.
It's hard to get a good read on what happened here. She broke rather slowly, although that's commonplace for her. She stalked the field as usual, and had to go nine wide off the final turn to get the job done. That said, it wasn't her normal performance, and I heard Mike Smith say that she felt unfocused.
Personally, I'm still a big fan, and I still would love to see her run in the SA Derby. I've watched this race a couple of times now, and I think maybe her trip was tougher than it looks, so maybe more credit is due. I'm certainly interested to see the Beyer figures on it.
In case you missed it, here's the replay:
Before this race, here connections had been talking about the Kentucky Derby, but I'm guessing now that the Kentucky Oaks is where we'll eventually see her. Also still in the air is whether she will run in the Santa Anita Derby as previously mentioned.
It's hard to get a good read on what happened here. She broke rather slowly, although that's commonplace for her. She stalked the field as usual, and had to go nine wide off the final turn to get the job done. That said, it wasn't her normal performance, and I heard Mike Smith say that she felt unfocused.
Personally, I'm still a big fan, and I still would love to see her run in the SA Derby. I've watched this race a couple of times now, and I think maybe her trip was tougher than it looks, so maybe more credit is due. I'm certainly interested to see the Beyer figures on it.
In case you missed it, here's the replay:
Saturday, March 7, 2009
I Want Revenge for the Beating I Took at the Betting Windows!
First off, let me just say that I should have seen this coming. When Joe Talamo leaves Santa Anita on the day of the million dollar Big Cap to ride a three year old at Aqueduct, maybe he knows a little more about that horse's chances than I do.
I was certainly impressed with I Want Revenge's run, as he jumped out early and never looked back. Talamo rode a nice race, and had him positioned perfectly for the stretch drive, leaving Mr. Fantasy in the dust. Jeff Mullins had said before the race that he didn't think the colt was gripping the synthetic surfaces in California as well as he would dirt, and obviously, he was right.
Clearly, I Want Revenge has solidified his position on the Derby trail. All signs point to him running again in the Wood Memorial on April 4th.
As impressive as the victory was for him, I think the more interesting questions focus on the other runners in this race, and where they go from here.
Haynesfield, my pick in this one, finished a disastrous eighth, and looked as if he had no punch at all. Usually the speed, he broke late, ran sixth down the backstretch, and was finished by the turn for home. I would expect we'll still see one more try out of him before the Derby, and certainly he was due for a bounce, but that was ugly. I've watched this race three or four times now (gotta love Tivo), and I still can't find any legitimate excuses for him.
Also interesting here was Mr. Fantasy. He gave the winner a good run for a mile, and was separating himself from the rest of the pack before he tired late and got clipped at the wire by Imperial Council. I know there are a lot out there who think this horse is overrated, and he may well be, but I didn't think he ran all that poorly for his first try against this type of competition. In his first two races, he was never asked to dig in late and came home looking at the whip rather than feeling it. I suspect that after this, and some good duel schooling, he might just have a bit more kick in the stretch next time. I'll be interested to see how he plays out.
As usual, I leave the weekend with more questions than answers.
Here's the Gotham replay:
I was certainly impressed with I Want Revenge's run, as he jumped out early and never looked back. Talamo rode a nice race, and had him positioned perfectly for the stretch drive, leaving Mr. Fantasy in the dust. Jeff Mullins had said before the race that he didn't think the colt was gripping the synthetic surfaces in California as well as he would dirt, and obviously, he was right.
Clearly, I Want Revenge has solidified his position on the Derby trail. All signs point to him running again in the Wood Memorial on April 4th.
As impressive as the victory was for him, I think the more interesting questions focus on the other runners in this race, and where they go from here.
Haynesfield, my pick in this one, finished a disastrous eighth, and looked as if he had no punch at all. Usually the speed, he broke late, ran sixth down the backstretch, and was finished by the turn for home. I would expect we'll still see one more try out of him before the Derby, and certainly he was due for a bounce, but that was ugly. I've watched this race three or four times now (gotta love Tivo), and I still can't find any legitimate excuses for him.
Also interesting here was Mr. Fantasy. He gave the winner a good run for a mile, and was separating himself from the rest of the pack before he tired late and got clipped at the wire by Imperial Council. I know there are a lot out there who think this horse is overrated, and he may well be, but I didn't think he ran all that poorly for his first try against this type of competition. In his first two races, he was never asked to dig in late and came home looking at the whip rather than feeling it. I suspect that after this, and some good duel schooling, he might just have a bit more kick in the stretch next time. I'll be interested to see how he plays out.
As usual, I leave the weekend with more questions than answers.
Here's the Gotham replay:
Friday, March 6, 2009
The First Horse Races?
I know this isn't horse racing info per se, but I find this kind of stuff intriguing. The gist of the article is that scientists have found evidence of earlier horse domestication than previously believed. This was initially carried in Thursday's edition of the New York Times. Enjoy.
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/06/science/06horses.html?_r=1
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/06/science/06horses.html?_r=1
Stardom Bound Looking to Roll
Last year's Breeder's Cup Juvenile Filly champion Stardom Bound is entered in the Santa Anita Oaks for Saturday. I'm going to save my breath in handicapping this race, and just tell you to bet her.
This filly is a monster. She's won four consecutive graded stakes, and is in against a field that doesn't appear to have her class. IEAH Stables has said that if she runs well here, she could make her next start in the Santa Anita Derby against the boys. Personally, I don't think she'll have any trouble here, and I'm really excited to see her run against the fellas.
Obviously, a good run in the Santa Anita Derby would give her the envious task of choosing between the Kentucky Derby and Kentucky Oaks starts.
Either way, Stardom Bound, along with Evita Argentina, are two fillies that really have some promise. Look for them to make more noise as the spring progresses.
This filly is a monster. She's won four consecutive graded stakes, and is in against a field that doesn't appear to have her class. IEAH Stables has said that if she runs well here, she could make her next start in the Santa Anita Derby against the boys. Personally, I don't think she'll have any trouble here, and I'm really excited to see her run against the fellas.
Obviously, a good run in the Santa Anita Derby would give her the envious task of choosing between the Kentucky Derby and Kentucky Oaks starts.
Either way, Stardom Bound, along with Evita Argentina, are two fillies that really have some promise. Look for them to make more noise as the spring progresses.
Thursday, March 5, 2009
Gotham Stakes Breakdown
The Gotham Stakes (G3) is running on Saturday at Aqueduct, and there are some intriguing runners in here. I think several of these horses have legitimate shots at stepping forward on the Derby trail, while several others seem in a bit over their heads. Here's how I see each horse, in their post-position order:
1. Naos: His most impressive win came in an allowance race at a mile and change, and that was against so-so competition. He ran a sprint against Derby hopeful Taqarub at Aqueduct and lost by more than twelve lengths in a 6f race. Not much hope here.
2. Russell Road: Winner of last six in a row (seven starts total), but all sprints. He'll certainly get some play, but the big question is whether he can stretch out here and make the mile and a sixteenth distance. I think he's got a shot, but I'll only use him if I can get a price on him. I think his chances are slim enough that a big bet here isn't worth it.
3. Masala: He ran a 96 Beyer last time out, finishing second to Take the Points, who last week finished second to three year old monster The Pamplemousse in the Sham Stakes. He intrigues me here, especially with the Todd Pletcher nameplate. Could be a surprise.
4. Axel Foley: First, let me just say that I love the name. Anybody who names a horse after Eddie Murphy's character in the Beverly Hills Cop series is cool in my book. That said, his name might be the only thing to get excited about. Ran okay at this distance at Golden Gate in the Cal Derby, but his only win was a 7f run on poly track in Great Britain. I don't think he's got a lot of chance in here.
5. Mr. Fantasy: This horse might be the most interesting in the field. Two starts, two wins. Hard to beat that. Plus, he's looked great doing it. He's run a 97 Beyer, where he won by ten and a half lengths, and a 93 Beyer, at this distance, where he won by eight and a half. Yes, he's stepping up in class, but man, this horse looks good.
6. Haynesfield: One word for this horse - SPEED. This winner of four in five starts will look to break quick, run to the front, and dare anyone to catch him. He won the Damon Runyan, the Count Fleet, and the Whirlaway, all on this track, and all by multiple lengths. They'll bet him to the floor, but if you're looking to cash a ticket, it'll be hard to discredit him. In my opinion, he's the one to beat. I expect him to run the others off their feet and still have something left in the tank.
7. Imperial Council: Comes back to New York after an allowance win at Gulfstream. The two wins in three starts is nice, but he's never gone more than 7f, and only one start this year. Not worth my money.
8. I Want Revenge: Ships in from California for this. His only start this year was in the Robert Lewis at Santa Anita, where he was beaten by Derby hopefuls Pioneer of the Nile and Papa Clem. He can certainly cover this distance, and should be plenty fit, but he'll have his hands full here. A nice horse, but I think there's a little more class in the Gotham. I'll use him lower on my ticket.
9. Giant Ryan: In every race, there's a horse or two that you can throw out right away, and this one is it. He's never gone more than 6f, only one win, highest Beyer is a 73. I can't find much to like about him. I think he's in way over his head.
So, here's my ticket:
I'm taking Haynesfield to win, Mr. Fantasy for second (although I might box my top two. I really like this horse), I Want Revenge in third, and Masala to round out the superfecta.
6-5-8-3
1. Naos: His most impressive win came in an allowance race at a mile and change, and that was against so-so competition. He ran a sprint against Derby hopeful Taqarub at Aqueduct and lost by more than twelve lengths in a 6f race. Not much hope here.
2. Russell Road: Winner of last six in a row (seven starts total), but all sprints. He'll certainly get some play, but the big question is whether he can stretch out here and make the mile and a sixteenth distance. I think he's got a shot, but I'll only use him if I can get a price on him. I think his chances are slim enough that a big bet here isn't worth it.
3. Masala: He ran a 96 Beyer last time out, finishing second to Take the Points, who last week finished second to three year old monster The Pamplemousse in the Sham Stakes. He intrigues me here, especially with the Todd Pletcher nameplate. Could be a surprise.
4. Axel Foley: First, let me just say that I love the name. Anybody who names a horse after Eddie Murphy's character in the Beverly Hills Cop series is cool in my book. That said, his name might be the only thing to get excited about. Ran okay at this distance at Golden Gate in the Cal Derby, but his only win was a 7f run on poly track in Great Britain. I don't think he's got a lot of chance in here.
5. Mr. Fantasy: This horse might be the most interesting in the field. Two starts, two wins. Hard to beat that. Plus, he's looked great doing it. He's run a 97 Beyer, where he won by ten and a half lengths, and a 93 Beyer, at this distance, where he won by eight and a half. Yes, he's stepping up in class, but man, this horse looks good.
6. Haynesfield: One word for this horse - SPEED. This winner of four in five starts will look to break quick, run to the front, and dare anyone to catch him. He won the Damon Runyan, the Count Fleet, and the Whirlaway, all on this track, and all by multiple lengths. They'll bet him to the floor, but if you're looking to cash a ticket, it'll be hard to discredit him. In my opinion, he's the one to beat. I expect him to run the others off their feet and still have something left in the tank.
7. Imperial Council: Comes back to New York after an allowance win at Gulfstream. The two wins in three starts is nice, but he's never gone more than 7f, and only one start this year. Not worth my money.
8. I Want Revenge: Ships in from California for this. His only start this year was in the Robert Lewis at Santa Anita, where he was beaten by Derby hopefuls Pioneer of the Nile and Papa Clem. He can certainly cover this distance, and should be plenty fit, but he'll have his hands full here. A nice horse, but I think there's a little more class in the Gotham. I'll use him lower on my ticket.
9. Giant Ryan: In every race, there's a horse or two that you can throw out right away, and this one is it. He's never gone more than 6f, only one win, highest Beyer is a 73. I can't find much to like about him. I think he's in way over his head.
So, here's my ticket:
I'm taking Haynesfield to win, Mr. Fantasy for second (although I might box my top two. I really like this horse), I Want Revenge in third, and Masala to round out the superfecta.
6-5-8-3
Preakness to Move Tracks?
Magna Entertainment, the biggest owner of thoroughbred horse tracks in the U.S. filed for bankruptcy today, and the first thing I thought of was what would happen to the Preakness Stakes, since Magna owns Pimlico Racecourse, the Preakness' home site.
From the articles I've read, it appears that the Preakness Stakes could be offered for bid to other tracks as part of the bankruptcy proceedings. I'm not totally sure if this means any other tracks, or just those in Maryland. Although I haven't had the pleasure of visiting the Maryland tracks, I can't believe that Laurel, or any of the others, would have the infrastructure to host such a big event.
Horse racing is built on tradition, and to me, it would be worrisome to see the Preakness at another track. Crab cakes and Black-Eyed Susans are as much a part of this day as the horses, and hosting it somewhere else just wouldn't be the same.
Stay tuned, and keep your fingers crossed that all works out.
From the articles I've read, it appears that the Preakness Stakes could be offered for bid to other tracks as part of the bankruptcy proceedings. I'm not totally sure if this means any other tracks, or just those in Maryland. Although I haven't had the pleasure of visiting the Maryland tracks, I can't believe that Laurel, or any of the others, would have the infrastructure to host such a big event.
Horse racing is built on tradition, and to me, it would be worrisome to see the Preakness at another track. Crab cakes and Black-Eyed Susans are as much a part of this day as the horses, and hosting it somewhere else just wouldn't be the same.
Stay tuned, and keep your fingers crossed that all works out.
Sunday, March 1, 2009
Midshipman Out for Kentucky Derby
Midshipman, the Eclipse-award winning juvenile horse of the year and winner of the 2008 Breeder's Cup Juvenile, will miss the Kentucky Derby, as well as the other Triple Crown races this year, due to an injury sustained while exercising on Saturday.
According to the Godolphin website, Midshipman sustained a "minor soft-tissue injury to his left fore leg during routine exercise." The injury occurred at Godolphin's Al Quoz training center in Dubai, where Midshipman had been prepping for the United Arab Emirates Derby on March 28th.
According to the Thoroughbred Times website, Midshipman was acquired by Godolphin when Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid al Maktoum purchased Stonerside Stables via his Darley Farm breeding operation. Midshipman was one of the horses included in that purchase.
According to the Godolphin website, Midshipman sustained a "minor soft-tissue injury to his left fore leg during routine exercise." The injury occurred at Godolphin's Al Quoz training center in Dubai, where Midshipman had been prepping for the United Arab Emirates Derby on March 28th.
According to the Thoroughbred Times website, Midshipman was acquired by Godolphin when Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid al Maktoum purchased Stonerside Stables via his Darley Farm breeding operation. Midshipman was one of the horses included in that purchase.
Thursday, February 26, 2009
Horse Racing Hall of Fame Nominees
The National Museum of Racing's Hall of Fame has announced their finalists for selection in 2009. They are:
Contemporary Male Horses: Best Pal, Point Given, Tiznow
Contemporary Female Horses: Open Mind, Silverbulletday, Sky Beauty
Jockeys: Eddie Maple, Randy Romero, Alex Solis
Trainers: Bob Baffert, Robert Wheeler
See the full article, including brief descriptions of each candidate, here:
http://www.racingmuseum.net/news/nrm-news-view-story-detail.asp?varID=209
Contemporary Male Horses: Best Pal, Point Given, Tiznow
Contemporary Female Horses: Open Mind, Silverbulletday, Sky Beauty
Jockeys: Eddie Maple, Randy Romero, Alex Solis
Trainers: Bob Baffert, Robert Wheeler
See the full article, including brief descriptions of each candidate, here:
http://www.racingmuseum.net/news/nrm-news-view-story-detail.asp?varID=209
John Battaglia Memorial Stakes Field
The John Battaglia Memorial Stakes will be run this weekend at Turfway Park in Kentucky. This ungraded stake, with a purse of $100,000, is named for the former general manager of Latonia Race Track, which changed its name to Turfway Park in 1986. For those of you who recognize the Battaglia name, John Battaglia's son Mike is the odds maker for Churchill Downs and often works as a racing host and analyst for NBC's live racing coverage.
1. Dynamite Bob
2. Stratos
3. Platinum Van
4. Proceed Bee
5. Toccet Rocket
6. Shanes Gold
7. Fitzaslew
8. Parade Clown
One interesting fact for fans of fillies: this race was won by Absolutely Cindy last year, the only female in a field of eleven.
1. Dynamite Bob
2. Stratos
3. Platinum Van
4. Proceed Bee
5. Toccet Rocket
6. Shanes Gold
7. Fitzaslew
8. Parade Clown
One interesting fact for fans of fillies: this race was won by Absolutely Cindy last year, the only female in a field of eleven.
Sham Stakes Set
The 2009 Sham Stakes at Santa Anita will post as the 9th race at Santa Anita on saturday, running for $200,000 as part of a big Saturday of Kentucky Derby preps. The field, with post positions looks like this:
1. Hi Flyin Indy
2. Smart Bid
3. Tiz True
4. Lifeline
5. The Pamplemousse
6. Balfour Park
7. Mr. Hot Stuff
8. Bourbon Bay
9. Ventana
10. Mark S The Cooler
11. Unbridled Roman
12. Take the Points (appears he will start here)
1. Hi Flyin Indy
2. Smart Bid
3. Tiz True
4. Lifeline
5. The Pamplemousse
6. Balfour Park
7. Mr. Hot Stuff
8. Bourbon Bay
9. Ventana
10. Mark S The Cooler
11. Unbridled Roman
12. Take the Points (appears he will start here)
Fountain of Youth Stakes Field
The field is set for the 2009 Fountain of Youth Stakes (GII) at Gulfstream Park, a $250,000 prep for Kentucky Derby hopefuls. Last year, this race produced Derby starter Cool Coal Man. Here are the starters, with post position, and their morning-line odds.
1. Bee Cee Cee 30-1
2. Theregoesjojo 15-1
3. Notonthesamepage 4-1
4. Take the Points 10-1
5. Jack Spratt 20-1
6. Rocketing Returns 15-1
7. Beethoven 12-1
8. Break Water Edison 15-1
9. Capt. Candyman Can 5-1
10. Taqarub 6-1
11. Quality Road 8-1
12. This Ones for Phil 3-1
Note: For those of you observant enough to notice, you will see that Take the Points, the Todd Pletcher trained colt, is entered in both the Sham and the Fountain of Youth this weekend. Bloodhorse.com is reporting that he shipped to California this weekend, so it appears he will run in the Sham and scratch from the Fountain of Youth.
For those of you who just can't wait for some Fountain of Youth action, here's the replay of last year's running with Cool Coal Man:
1. Bee Cee Cee 30-1
2. Theregoesjojo 15-1
3. Notonthesamepage 4-1
4. Take the Points 10-1
5. Jack Spratt 20-1
6. Rocketing Returns 15-1
7. Beethoven 12-1
8. Break Water Edison 15-1
9. Capt. Candyman Can 5-1
10. Taqarub 6-1
11. Quality Road 8-1
12. This Ones for Phil 3-1
Note: For those of you observant enough to notice, you will see that Take the Points, the Todd Pletcher trained colt, is entered in both the Sham and the Fountain of Youth this weekend. Bloodhorse.com is reporting that he shipped to California this weekend, so it appears he will run in the Sham and scratch from the Fountain of Youth.
For those of you who just can't wait for some Fountain of Youth action, here's the replay of last year's running with Cool Coal Man:
Sunday, February 22, 2009
Horse Racing Movies
In light of Oscar night, I thought it might be appropriate to post a listing of horse racing related films. The link below will take you to a fairly comprehensive listing, although there are at least two that I can think of that aren't included (the 2003 version of Seabiscuit, with Tobey Maguire, and 1988's Hot to Trot, with Bobcat Goldthwait).
Anyway, if you're a movie buff like me, I'm sure you'll enjoy perusing the list.
http://www.horse-races.net/library/list-movies.htm
Anyway, if you're a movie buff like me, I'm sure you'll enjoy perusing the list.
http://www.horse-races.net/library/list-movies.htm
Saturday, February 21, 2009
Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool One
The first of three future wager pools for the Kentucky Derby closed on Feb. 15th, and as usual, the mutual field was the favorite at odds of 5-2.
For those of you unfamiliar with the tradition of the future wager pool at the Kentucky Derby, the premise is to pick the Derby winner before knowing precisely which horses will be running. Horses are assigned an odds to win (only win bets are allowed in the future pools) and bettors are given the opportunity to pick a winner at substantially higher odds than they are likely to receive on race day (provided that their pick actually makes it to the gate). In this process, some early contenders who have already started establishing themselves are given their own odds, while all other contenders who are not specifically named are considered part of the mutual field. In other words, a mutual field bet gets you all the remaining Triple Crown nominated horses.
As you can see, I have listed the horses singled out in the future wager pool in a column on the right-hand side of the blog. I find this the easiest way to track the runners as we count down to the main event. By clicking on the horse's name, you will be taken to their individual profile page on the Thoroughbred Times website, where more in-depth information about each is available.
The second future wager pool is slated for March 12-15, and final early wagering will be held April 2-5. Also, for those interested, the Kentucky Oaks (the filly version of the Kentucky Derby) has reduced its future wagering pools from three to one this year, and it will coincide with the second Derby pool in March. When it becomes available, those horses will be listed as well.
That said, I think it's also important to track several of the horses not singled out in the initial future wager pool. Keep in mind that last year's winner, Big Brown, was not an individual entry in the first pool, nor was former Horse of the Year and Kentucky Derby third-place finisher Curlin in 2007. To that end, I've created a separate list of "Other's to Watch." If there are any horses that I've missed that you feel belong there, send me a note and I'll get them added.
For those of you unfamiliar with the tradition of the future wager pool at the Kentucky Derby, the premise is to pick the Derby winner before knowing precisely which horses will be running. Horses are assigned an odds to win (only win bets are allowed in the future pools) and bettors are given the opportunity to pick a winner at substantially higher odds than they are likely to receive on race day (provided that their pick actually makes it to the gate). In this process, some early contenders who have already started establishing themselves are given their own odds, while all other contenders who are not specifically named are considered part of the mutual field. In other words, a mutual field bet gets you all the remaining Triple Crown nominated horses.
As you can see, I have listed the horses singled out in the future wager pool in a column on the right-hand side of the blog. I find this the easiest way to track the runners as we count down to the main event. By clicking on the horse's name, you will be taken to their individual profile page on the Thoroughbred Times website, where more in-depth information about each is available.
The second future wager pool is slated for March 12-15, and final early wagering will be held April 2-5. Also, for those interested, the Kentucky Oaks (the filly version of the Kentucky Derby) has reduced its future wagering pools from three to one this year, and it will coincide with the second Derby pool in March. When it becomes available, those horses will be listed as well.
That said, I think it's also important to track several of the horses not singled out in the initial future wager pool. Keep in mind that last year's winner, Big Brown, was not an individual entry in the first pool, nor was former Horse of the Year and Kentucky Derby third-place finisher Curlin in 2007. To that end, I've created a separate list of "Other's to Watch." If there are any horses that I've missed that you feel belong there, send me a note and I'll get them added.
Mayor Marv Runs Roughshod Over Field in Turf Paradise Derby
Mayor Marv took the lead forty feet from the gate and never looked back, drawing off to win by three lengths in the Turf Paradise Derby. The betting favorite at even odds covered the mile and a sixteenth in 1:43.23.
Mayor Marv's stiffest competition came from local favorite Hidden Bounty, the second betting choice at 9/5. Hidden Bounty ran well, stalking Mayor Marv from the outset and looking for a few strides as if he might have the gas to finish the job. He drew along side Mayor Marv with a furlong to go, but David Flores asked the Mayor for more and got it, while Hidden Bounty had nothing left and faded to a lapsing second place.
Just Jebicah finished third in a good race for him, and long shot Lesson in Deceit finished fourth.
After the race, the TVG hosts discussed the possibility of Mayor Marv shipping to Santa Anita to run in the April 4th Santa Anita Derby for $750,000, a turnaround of about five weeks. A quick check of the nominations for that race on the Santa Anita website confirm that he is nominated, but I think that race might be a little over his head. However, if he hopes to continue on the Derby trail, he will need to be stout there, or in a similar race, to earn enough money to qualify. Keep in mind that he's now won two straight and is under the tutelage of Bob Baffert, who is certainly no stranger to getting big runs out of his horses. Still a longshot, but he performed as asked today, and can't be counted out yet.
Mayor Marv $4.00 $2.40 $2.10
Hidden Bounty $2.60 $2.40
Just Jebicah $6.00
Mayor Marv's stiffest competition came from local favorite Hidden Bounty, the second betting choice at 9/5. Hidden Bounty ran well, stalking Mayor Marv from the outset and looking for a few strides as if he might have the gas to finish the job. He drew along side Mayor Marv with a furlong to go, but David Flores asked the Mayor for more and got it, while Hidden Bounty had nothing left and faded to a lapsing second place.
Just Jebicah finished third in a good race for him, and long shot Lesson in Deceit finished fourth.
After the race, the TVG hosts discussed the possibility of Mayor Marv shipping to Santa Anita to run in the April 4th Santa Anita Derby for $750,000, a turnaround of about five weeks. A quick check of the nominations for that race on the Santa Anita website confirm that he is nominated, but I think that race might be a little over his head. However, if he hopes to continue on the Derby trail, he will need to be stout there, or in a similar race, to earn enough money to qualify. Keep in mind that he's now won two straight and is under the tutelage of Bob Baffert, who is certainly no stranger to getting big runs out of his horses. Still a longshot, but he performed as asked today, and can't be counted out yet.
Mayor Marv $4.00 $2.40 $2.10
Hidden Bounty $2.60 $2.40
Just Jebicah $6.00
Triple Crown Nominations Down in 2009
Nominations to the Triple Crown were down by almost 11% for 2009, from 449 in 2008 to 401 this year. As Jeff Lowe of the Thoroughbred Times points out in a recent article (see the link below), this is the smallest field of nominees since 2005, when the foal crop was reduced due to the troubles the breeding industry incurred as a result of mare reproductive loss syndrome. However, as noted in the article, this year's downturn is clearly a result of the economy, as the small nomination class was actually part of the largest foal crop of this decade (so far).
I guess even the rich guys get the blues.
Check out the full article at:
http://www.thoroughbredtimes.com/racing-news/2009/February/07/Triple-Crown-nominations-decline-by-107-in-2009.aspx
I guess even the rich guys get the blues.
Check out the full article at:
http://www.thoroughbredtimes.com/racing-news/2009/February/07/Triple-Crown-nominations-decline-by-107-in-2009.aspx
Friday, February 20, 2009
A Slim Weekend for Preps
There's not much in the way of prep races for the Derby this weekend. The only one of any note is the Turf Paradise Derby, a race for three year olds at a mile and a sixteenth for $100,000.
The favorite is Mayor Marv, trained by Bob Baffert for the Mike Pegram stable, a team that's worked together on top-caliber horses Real Quiet, winner of the 1998 Kentucky Derby, and Midnight Lute, winner of the 2007 Breeder's Cup Sprint, among others. Although it took him six starts to break his maiden, keep in mind that two of those starts he lost to legitimate Kentucky Derby hopefuls Papa Clem (by 1/2 length in a one mile race at Santa Anita on 12/29) and The Pamplemousse (by 2 3/4 at a 1 1/16 at Hollywood Park on 12/14). And, the start before that, he was beaten by only a head in a sprint at Aqueduct after going five wide. He should be the favorite here. David Flores is scheduled to ride.
Mayor Marv's toughest competition here looks to be Hidden Bounty (morning line 3-1), a Turfway Park favorite who stretched to a mile his last time out and won by 6 3/4, pulling away. He has beaten others in this one, including Albacore Bob (morning line 6-1) and Just Jebicah (morning line 10-1).
I'll take Hidden Bounty to win, Mayor Marv to place, and at 8-1 morning line, I'll look to get a price on Lesson in Deceit, who comes off a mile race on turf where he won by four lengths.
The favorite is Mayor Marv, trained by Bob Baffert for the Mike Pegram stable, a team that's worked together on top-caliber horses Real Quiet, winner of the 1998 Kentucky Derby, and Midnight Lute, winner of the 2007 Breeder's Cup Sprint, among others. Although it took him six starts to break his maiden, keep in mind that two of those starts he lost to legitimate Kentucky Derby hopefuls Papa Clem (by 1/2 length in a one mile race at Santa Anita on 12/29) and The Pamplemousse (by 2 3/4 at a 1 1/16 at Hollywood Park on 12/14). And, the start before that, he was beaten by only a head in a sprint at Aqueduct after going five wide. He should be the favorite here. David Flores is scheduled to ride.
Mayor Marv's toughest competition here looks to be Hidden Bounty (morning line 3-1), a Turfway Park favorite who stretched to a mile his last time out and won by 6 3/4, pulling away. He has beaten others in this one, including Albacore Bob (morning line 6-1) and Just Jebicah (morning line 10-1).
I'll take Hidden Bounty to win, Mayor Marv to place, and at 8-1 morning line, I'll look to get a price on Lesson in Deceit, who comes off a mile race on turf where he won by four lengths.
So we're in the thick of the prep races for the 135th Kentucky Derby, and I have finally gotten my blog started. In the next couple of months, I hope to track those prep races, and the horses running for those twenty coveted spots in the starting gate, right here on this blog. After that, we'll move on to the summer session, the races at the Spa, and the Breeder's Cup.
Just to be clear, I'm doing this for fun. I certainly hope to provide some good info, and maybe start some interesting dialogue, but the true point is to have fun, track the horses, and delight in the magic that is the Triple Crown.
As we go, please feel free to send me your thoughts, feelings, and any other input you've got.
Happy racing!
Just to be clear, I'm doing this for fun. I certainly hope to provide some good info, and maybe start some interesting dialogue, but the true point is to have fun, track the horses, and delight in the magic that is the Triple Crown.
As we go, please feel free to send me your thoughts, feelings, and any other input you've got.
Happy racing!
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