Monday, April 13, 2009

UAE Derby

Godolphin Stables are going to win a Kentucky Derby one year, and this might just be the year, and after their horses ran away with the field in the UAE Derby, held at world famous Nad al Sheba racecourse in Dubai, they may be thinking this is their year. Regal Ransom and Desert Party ran 1-2 respectively, in such a dominating fashion that no other horses were even in the wide shot during the stretch run.

When I see a race like this, it makes me question exactly what's happening. First, it always seems a bit unfair that Godolphin has so much money that they can essentially afford to host their own Derby prep, and then dominate it so distinctly, which is clearly what happened here. That said, it's not as if Godolphin doesn't put up some incentive to attract other top contenders (Regal Ransom made $1.25 million for winning this one), but for whatever reason, the top American contenders, with only a few exceptions, don't show up.

Unfortunately, what the fans are left with, at least from a Triple Crown perspective, is a lot of confusion in deciphering exactly what they're looking at. Was this a good field that took an amazing effort to beat, or was this a mediocre field that the Godolphin horses tromped on, making themselves look good in the process.

My guess is that it's somewhere in between. Regal Ransom and Desert Party both looked very good here relatively speaking, and surprisingly, Regal Ransom was only the bettor's third choice, paying $28.20 to win.

Barring any unfortunate accidents, both horses will be starting in the Derby (Regal Ransom is first on the graded stakes earning lists, Desert Party is sixth). What remains to be seen, however, is whether Godolphin can break the string of disappointing finishes put up by Dubai horses in the Derby. I think either of these has a shot. We'll know soon enough.

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