East v. West

Don't you love rivalries? Ali vs. Frazier, Magic vs. Bird, Michigan vs. Ohio State, Affirmed vs. Alydar. We have another potential classic brewing for the Kentucky Derby.

Representing the West: Pioneerof The Nile

His argument:
After winning the Santa Anita Derby, and boasting a perfect three-for-three record this year, Pioneerof The Nile is clearly the class of the west coast racing circuit. His wins have come against substantial competition, and all three were significant races; the Santa Anita Derby (G1), Robert B. Lewis Stakes (G2), San Felipe Stakes (G3). Couple that with his CashCall Futurity (G1) win and third place run in the Lane's End Breeder's Futurity (G1) from five starts as a two year old, and it's easy to see that the horse has talent. As of April 13th, he is second in graded stakes earnings, with $1,193, 250.

Potential pitfall:
As a west coast horse, Pioneerof The Nile has been racing on synthetics. In his only trip east, as a two year old, he ran on Keeneland's synthetic track, where he finished third. Unfortunately for him, the Derby is still run on dirt, and that's a big step. Trainer Bob Baffert has famously said "if he likes the dirt, he'll like the dirt. I can't force him to like the dirt." While that's true, it also leaves a big question mark. Can he make the jump?

Representing the East: I Want Revenge

His argument:
Originally a west coast horse, he made the jump east to try dirt, and has been devouring opponents ever since. He romped in the Grade III Gotham, beating a tough field filled with Derby hopefuls, then followed it up with a grinding performance in the Grade I Wood Memorial, where he found himself well behind after breaking horribly from the gate, then got bumped and jostled throughout. Somehow, he managed to split horses in the stretch, making his own racing room and drawing off to win. It is exactly that kind of courage, and the ability to take contact and difficult situations and still not lose heart, that prevails in the slugfest that is so often the Kentucky Derby. Plus, he has the added advantage of knowing he likes the dirt.

One other thing, and don't count this out. I Want Revenge has Joe Talamo on board. Love him or hate him, with the traffic on Derby day, the winner quite often has to take chances, exploit holes that disappear in a heartbeat, and make his own racing luck. Joe Talamo does all of those things on a daily basis. Does it always work? Not even close, but it might on Derby Day.

I Want Revenge is currently ranked 4th in graded stakes earnings, with $774,000.

Potential pitfall:
In three starts this year, I Want Revenge has won two. His only loss was on synthetic, where he ran third, losing to.... wait for it.... Pioneerof The Nile. And guess what? As a two year old, he ran second in the Grade I CashCall Stakes to, you guessed it, Pioneerof The Nile. In the head to head battle, Pioneerof The Nile has the edge, but both were on synthetics, a surface that Pioneer likes and I Want Revenge does not. I Want Revenge's name seems more apt now, doesn't it?

The plot thickens.