Wild Weekend

I realize this post is a bit late in coming, but with the start of the high school lacrosse season (I'm a coach), and four different races to break down (as well as some intriguing filly races that took place Saturday), it's taken me most of the weekend to catch my breath.

That said, let's dive in.

San Felipe Stakes
In the San Felipe at Santa Anita, Pioneerof The Nile went off as the 1/5 favorite, and although it was much closer than it should have been, he didn't disappoint. Clearly the class of this field, I think many expected a much more dominant run from him here. One possible excuse was the lack of speed in the front. In both of his previous starts this year, he's run from off the pace to hit the wire in front, and it's possible that the slow early fractions here made him alter his racing style more than he would like. I still would have liked to see more effort, but in the end he got the job done and maintained his undefeated 3 year-old campaign. The big test for him will be in the Santa Anita Derby. After Saturday's performance, I don't expect we'll see as many shy away from him next time out.

Tampa Bay Derby
To be frank, I'm not sure what to say about the Tampa Bay Derby. I've watched this race in replay several times now, and I still can't believe that Musket Man got it done. His victory was impressive for a number of reasons. Despite a nice pocket trip through most of the race, he got shuffled back at the end of the backstretch and had to go four wide to find room to run in the stretch. Also, to my (amateur) eye, he looked as if he was tiring heavily, even after switching leads at the top of the stretch. The most impressive, however, was the run he made on Join in the Dance, who was leading and looking to pull away. When local jockey Danny Centeno was able to focus Musket Man and aim him for Join in the Dance, it was over. The competitive streak that Musket Man showed in this one was impressive.

The question is where this horse goes from here. He is not Triple Crown nominated, although that's not a big deal. In TVG's interview with owner Eric Fein after the race, Fein did say that "Kentucky's always fun," and I would think that for any owner with a Tampa Bay Derby winner in his stable, that has to be a consideration. I'm not completely sold on this horse being of Derby quality, but that said, he ran third to General Quarters and Sumo in his only career loss, and soundly beat both in this one on Saturday.

Rebel Stakes
I think the only realistic thing to say about the Rebel is that sometimes, really good horses just get beat, and we'll never know why. I thought going into it that Old Fashioned was one of the brightest stars on the Derby trail, and quite frankly, I still think that. He ran a good race, and it's hard to say exactly what happened. One could blame it on the quick early fractions, or, more likely, on the fact that he was far enough out front that jockey Ramon Dominguez was letting him shut it down before he saw the challenger coming on the outside. But when an undefeated horse gets beat by a 56-1 longshot like Win Willy, you just chalk it up to bad racing luck and move on. Assuming Old Fashioned looks okay coming out of this one, I doubt very seriously that his loss at the wire will change Larry Jones' future plans for the Derby. He's still a great horse.

Louisiana Derby
Finally, in what was probably the most talented race of the day, we received the most dominating performance. Friesan Fire smoked a field of solid horses to win by seven lengths over a sloppy track in the Louisiana Derby. Clearly, he's on the right track, after sweeping all three of the big races (Lecomte, Risen Star) at the Fair Grounds.

The more important question out of Louisiana might be where some of the others are heading. Papa Clem and Giant Oak ran respectibly, and should still be on track. Third place finisher Terrain looked good for his first start of the year, but to be truthful, the only other time I've seen him run was in the Breeder's Cup Juvenile last year, and I really don't know much about him.

It will be interesting to see how the connections of distant finishers Patena and Free Country take this loss. I would think that Patena will still come back, but that remains to be seen. Also, I will still look for Uno Mas in his next start. He hasn't run that well for several races now, but he's been the victim of some horrible trips, and if his next start finds him against a little less competition, he might be worth a few dollars at the window. He was still running at the wire, and that's always good to see.

Certainly an interesting weekend. We have a light weekend coming up next, with the Lane's End the only serious race, but then we'll be right back into the thick of things in two weeks with the Florida Derby and the emergence of several foreign horses who will look to take big strides forward in the UAE Derby. Stay tuned. Things are getting heated.