Gotham Stakes Breakdown

The Gotham Stakes (G3) is running on Saturday at Aqueduct, and there are some intriguing runners in here. I think several of these horses have legitimate shots at stepping forward on the Derby trail, while several others seem in a bit over their heads. Here's how I see each horse, in their post-position order:

1. Naos: His most impressive win came in an allowance race at a mile and change, and that was against so-so competition. He ran a sprint against Derby hopeful Taqarub at Aqueduct and lost by more than twelve lengths in a 6f race. Not much hope here.

2. Russell Road: Winner of last six in a row (seven starts total), but all sprints. He'll certainly get some play, but the big question is whether he can stretch out here and make the mile and a sixteenth distance. I think he's got a shot, but I'll only use him if I can get a price on him. I think his chances are slim enough that a big bet here isn't worth it.

3. Masala: He ran a 96 Beyer last time out, finishing second to Take the Points, who last week finished second to three year old monster The Pamplemousse in the Sham Stakes. He intrigues me here, especially with the Todd Pletcher nameplate. Could be a surprise.

4. Axel Foley: First, let me just say that I love the name. Anybody who names a horse after Eddie Murphy's character in the Beverly Hills Cop series is cool in my book. That said, his name might be the only thing to get excited about. Ran okay at this distance at Golden Gate in the Cal Derby, but his only win was a 7f run on poly track in Great Britain. I don't think he's got a lot of chance in here.

5. Mr. Fantasy: This horse might be the most interesting in the field. Two starts, two wins. Hard to beat that. Plus, he's looked great doing it. He's run a 97 Beyer, where he won by ten and a half lengths, and a 93 Beyer, at this distance, where he won by eight and a half. Yes, he's stepping up in class, but man, this horse looks good.

6. Haynesfield: One word for this horse - SPEED. This winner of four in five starts will look to break quick, run to the front, and dare anyone to catch him. He won the Damon Runyan, the Count Fleet, and the Whirlaway, all on this track, and all by multiple lengths. They'll bet him to the floor, but if you're looking to cash a ticket, it'll be hard to discredit him. In my opinion, he's the one to beat. I expect him to run the others off their feet and still have something left in the tank.

7. Imperial Council: Comes back to New York after an allowance win at Gulfstream. The two wins in three starts is nice, but he's never gone more than 7f, and only one start this year. Not worth my money.

8. I Want Revenge: Ships in from California for this. His only start this year was in the Robert Lewis at Santa Anita, where he was beaten by Derby hopefuls Pioneer of the Nile and Papa Clem. He can certainly cover this distance, and should be plenty fit, but he'll have his hands full here. A nice horse, but I think there's a little more class in the Gotham. I'll use him lower on my ticket.

9. Giant Ryan: In every race, there's a horse or two that you can throw out right away, and this one is it. He's never gone more than 6f, only one win, highest Beyer is a 73. I can't find much to like about him. I think he's in way over his head.

So, here's my ticket:

I'm taking Haynesfield to win, Mr. Fantasy for second (although I might box my top two. I really like this horse), I Want Revenge in third, and Masala to round out the superfecta.

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